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"I'll be sitting in the same seat by 2027," the Prime Minister remarked, noting that if the conversation proceeded smoothly, he might welcome us into Downing Street for a follow-up chat next year.

For a PM, there's never truly downtime for leaders. In the hour before we sat down, the PM had been speaking with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and attempting to decipher exactly what had transpired in Venezuela, where his close friend, US President Donald Trump, had recently launched a strike against and detained its leader, Nicolás Maduro.

Once the discussion, which was much longer than usual, had ended, Maduro had been formally accused in New York.

A Reboot for the New Year

But as the new year begins, Sir Keir appears to have had something of a revitalisation. Perhaps even just a little downtime with loved ones at Chequers, the prime minister's rural getaway.

That certainly appeared to have left him in improved morale than at the sluggish tail end of 2025, a dreadful annus horribilis for him.

But are he and his allies deluding themselves if they believe his fortunes are set to get better?

Leadership Questions

The grisly truth for the prime minister is that a significant number of his party members believe he's ineffective at his job. A faction of them would rather take a risk and oust him in 2026.

But Sir Keir was rejecting the idea during our conversation on Saturday morning.

On several occasions he stated he'd be "assessed at the general election", insisting nobody would take his five-year mandate from him – even if the most effective strategy of halting Nigel Farage and Reform UK reaching No 10 may be for Labour to change its leader.

"This is the struggle of our times and I aim to guide the party," he said.

Upcoming Local Votes

The issue for the prime minister is that he will be scrutinised long before then – in a major set of elections in May throughout the UK. He sought to contend, perhaps too much, that they are concerning who runs councils, and who runs the devolved administrations in Holyrood or Cardiff – and not a verdict on Westminster.

True – to some extent. But although he may not want to acknowledge it, No 10 will be evaluated by those elections too.

Despite this, Sir Keir implying that there were no circumstances under which he would walk away, should one of his MPs challenged him for the job, should those elections prove very poor for Labour.

Promises of Improvement

He attempted to explain his unpopularity by saying the electorate was reasonably anxious for things to improve. He tried to assure the interviewer, and the nation, that the coming months would be distinct.

The economic situation would strengthen notwithstanding rising unemployment, he said, when plans the administration implemented during their first turbulent year began to take effect.

• He vowed to shut asylum hotels ahead of the current target date of 2029, but he did not put a new date on that.
• He noted too, with the qualification that it was not a done deal, that a settlement in Ukraine felt more likely now than at any point since Russia's major invasion.
• He disclosed for the first time that Western partners were now considering how to integrate US and European forces to offer security for Ukraine – to protect a possible peace.

His central point is that in 2026 the country will "reach a turning point".

Familiar Arguments

The PM may have spoken with greater vigour than I've seen from him for a some time – calmer, maybe, with more time to talk.

However, in spite of facing calls from many directions for a bolder approach, with much more political clarity, more urgency, more pace and more urgency, his explanations were familiar ones.

When he finds himself in such significant political trouble, is a different approach required a different script?

No government, and certainly not one that has been unpopular for an extended period, gets everything its as planned.

The Prime Minister's problems are not just because government is difficult, but because he and his team have erred, including in the recent past.

Regrets and Risks

The prime minister expressed regret that he regretted saying he was "pleased" to see the return of the Egyptian-British activist Alaa Abd El Fattah to the UK following an backlash when statements he'd made in the past – including calls for Zionists and police to be killed – surfaced.

Starmer attributed it to "the process" for not catching what the activist had said before – a fancier way of saying it wasn't his responsibility.

And he is facing evident political risks as the year progresses. His friendship with the US president entails a new jeopardy after Trump's intervention on Venezuela.

Having interviewed Sir Keir Starmer, a ex- human rights lawyer who opposed the war in Iraq, over his career, the thought he would be at ease with such action seems unlikely.

Policy Stances and Pressures

He told me he was a "lifelong advocate of international law" but the public "just lack the complete details at the moment".

Critics demanded condemn it prior to we spoke. And the administration is expected to face more pressure to give an clear view in Parliament in the near future.

And there has consistently been simmering tension in the Labour ranks to revisit some of the outcomes of Brexit.

Sir Keir denies he's heading in that direction, but his new firmer plan to move closer with the European trading bloc – the huge economic European trading zone – will likely trigger howls that he is going back on his promise never to try to undo the decisions that followed Brexit.

A commitment to integrate into more of the single market will please a faction on his own side, but it is simple material for Reform and the Conservatives to