Ten years after the UK embarked on a hurried public vote that divided the country and caused turmoil, a caution emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Authorities and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar might transpire with a referendum on a unified Ireland, initiating convulsions for which no one is prepared.
That is the message from two leading commentators from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Institutions Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have determined that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a potentially tense and seismic public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can come out of the blue and can gain traction swiftly," the commentator said. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our region remains very unstable."
Book Publication Intends to Provoke Discussion
The team have analysed the political, financial and societal rationales for any constitutional change in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to encourage dialogue on the issue with a tour of speaking events that will lead them to Westminster soon.
"What haunts all parties, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We should prevent a national vote on a yes-no, vague proposition whose results have remained undefined because then you land with an extraordinarily split population where people who have lost are unable to accept defeat and the people who have won are uncertain exactly what it is that they have won."
Governmental Mandate
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official must arrange a referendum on Irish unity if it appears likely that a majority would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups claim that moment is approaching, and a non-profit called pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions downplay the prospect, making it uncertain whether or when there could be a referendum.
Insufficient Informed Dialogue
Partisan language for and against unification has hidden the absence of informed dialogue, noted the journalist.
"Individuals are often for or against the concept but the concrete planning which may surpass that to achieve it is mostly absent. A lot has gone on in scholarly circles but scarcely any government figures or campaigners are willing to participate with the essentials. To illustrate, what type of nation should be desired? Unitary? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the book, none of the commentators advocates unity or the current situation. Each composes two articles that seek objectivity in detailing the rationale for a united Ireland and the case opposing it, marshalling economic and societal statistics, previous instances and structural examples.
Discussions cover national emblems, taxes, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the threat of unionist unrest. The objective is to enlighten and stimulate conversation.
"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there has not yet occurred a debate," commented the writer. "Dialogue implies an acceptance of the concept that there could be valid points on both sides."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate report they support unity but reject paying higher taxes or introducing a new flag to recognise pro-UK communities' British culture.
"Authorities in Dublin should determine what the offer from pro-unification movements is aside from just stating: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," said the commentator.
Probability of Referendum
The journalist believes a national vote in his generation is likely and that it may take place suddenly. "It is possible just a reckless or a ill-advised or a incompetent secretary of state who declares: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have plausible, valid perspectives, he commented. "One side will win on this issue and the other side will eventually not succeed but both parties has possesses important lessons to acquire from the alternative positions."
Request for Broader Discussion
Westminster must join the dialogue, stated the analyst. "This concerns Britain. It's a British issue as much as it is an Irish matter."
